The Projections Life Table AG2024, recently released by the Royal Dutch Actuarial Association, offers updated insights into mortality trends and their implications for pensions. One key aspect of the update is the recalibration of the excess mortality rates caused by COVID-19. Instead of the previously expected 50% annual reduction, the new model projects a more gradual 25% annual decrease in excess mortality. These adjustments affect long-term life expectancy forecasts, particularly for women aged 55 and older, though the overall impact on pension provisions remains relatively small.
Two researchers from the RCLR, Frank van Berkum and Michel Vellekoop, contributed significantly to this update. Van Berkum, as a member of the Commissie Sterfte Onderzoek (Mortality Research Committee), played an essential role in analysing and interpreting the data behind these projections. Vellekoop, serving on the Advisory Board for this committee, provided critical oversight and guidance, ensuring the robustness and accuracy of the model.
The new table, based on data collected up to 2023, incorporates both long-term trends and the short-term impact of the pandemic, offering actuaries and pension funds a more precise understanding of the future liabilities they may face. These insights are crucial for better planning and managing pension schemes in the Netherlands.
For more details and to download the full report, please follow this link.
