Modelling socio-economic mortality at neighbourhood level

Neighbourhood level mortality paper




We quantify the relationship between socio-economic status and life expectancy and identify combinations of socio-economic variables that are particularly useful for explaining mortality differences between neighbourhoods in England. We achieve this by examining socio-economic variation in mortality experiences across small areas in England known as lower layer super output areas (LSOAs). We then consider 12 socio-economic variables that are known to have a strong association with mortality. We estimate the relationship between those variables and mortality rates using a random forest algorithm.


This research was first published in the ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA on the 11th of April 2023. 

To read more and download the article, please click here.


Jie Wen:
Lloyds Banking Group, Edinburgh EH3 9PE, UK

Andrew J.G. Cairns:
The Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh EH9 3FD, UK Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UK

Torsten Kleinow:
Research Centre for Longevity Risk, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Related research projects