Estimating neighbourhood death rates using the random forest algorithm




Recent decades have seen increasing evidence for inequality in mortality for different socio-economic groups in various national populations. In this article, published by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in their Longevity Bulletin, we construct a socio-economic index that models the ratio of actual vs. expected mortality in small neighbourhoods in England. The index is constructed using a Random Forest algorithm.


Published in Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Longevity Bulletin issue 15. 

Click here to access the Institute’s Thought Leadership page with an article about the bulletin titled: The Machine Learning Issue.

Click here to access the bulletin directly, where the article is on page 22. 


Andrew J.G. Cairns of The Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences,  Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University.

Jie Wen of Lloyds Banking Group.

Torsten Kleinow of Research Centre for Longevity Risk, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Amsterdam.


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